Site updates

What has changed on the site, newest first: new items and markets, and fixes to how prices are chosen, labelled or forecast.

November 9, 2026. Grocery meat prices are each one cut. Several items had averaged cuts that sell at different prices, so the price moved whenever the mix of store ads changed: chicken breasts now leave out thin-sliced cutlets ($2.45 became $2.09 a pound this week), pork chops are boneless center-cut ($3.87 became $4.33), strip, ribeye and top sirloin steaks are boneless, and pork ribs are back ribs. Each page says which cut.
November 9, 2026. A wholesale price now stays with its growing area while that area is still quoted about as often as any other. Two areas quoted equally had swapped the price back and forth (New York iceberg between Canada and California, Philadelphia lemons between Arizona and California). Calls right moved from 75.6% to 75.5%, big swings flagged ahead from 30.8% to 30.9%.
November 9, 2026. Detroit cucumbers show no price while Detroit isn't quoting the standard bushel slicer the other markets show (since October 23, when Michigan's season ended), instead of English (long seedless) cucumbers. New York mushrooms show one USDA quote's range ($16 to $18) instead of joining three quotes into $16 to $21.
November 8, 2026. Wholesale pages show which growing areas usually start or finish shipping in the next five weeks (for example the desert starting broccoli in mid November), from the weeks USDA quoted each area over the past six seasons. Replayed over 2022 to 2025, 83% of starts and 89% of finishes came within two weeks of the week named.
November 8, 2026. Wholesale item pages compare each count with its own usual price for the time of year and name the next count up or down when it is clearly the better buy (for example 80s russets 53% above usual against 70% for 70s). The High for the season list on the market board shows the same.
November 8, 2026. The usual range is now at least 5% either side of the usual price. Bananas barely move, so a 50-cent change had been labelled high or low for the season. Five wholesale prices moved back to normal: bananas in New York, Chicago and Miami, Granny Smith apples in Atlanta and Red Delicious apples in Boston.
November 5, 2026. Wholesale apples are now priced by variety. Gala, Honeycrisp, Granny Smith, Red Delicious and Fuji each have their own page and compare like for like across markets; before, each city showed one variety (Gala in New York, Granny Smith in Los Angeles, Red Delicious in Miami). Apples still get no firming or softening calls: by variety, past calls were right 41% to 64% of the time.
November 5, 2026. Fixed two ways a cheaper product could stand in for the usual one. Apple prices leave out the lower Fancy grade: Philadelphia Galas had switched between Extra Fancy ($36 to $44) and Fancy ($22 to $28) from week to week. And a lower grade such as Shippers Choice now takes over only after three market days in a row without the standard grade: Philadelphia lemons had read $42.25 one day and $33 the next. Calls right moved from 75.5% to 75.6%, big swings flagged ahead from 33.1% to 30.8%, wrong-way calls on big swings from 3.8% to 3.6%.
November 5, 2026. Grocery item pages show the organic price next to the regular one when at least 200 stores advertised the same item and pack that week.
November 5, 2026. Added wholesale meat: 22 boxed beef and ground beef prices and 8 chicken prices, with two-week calls. They don't change the produce record. In testing, beef calls since 2021 were right 82.5% of the time (559 calls). Chicken calls were right 109 of 111 times, but chicken history starts in 2022, so that covers only 2025 and 2026 and about 31 separate moves; expect it to come down.
November 4, 2026. Added Philadelphia, Boston, Atlanta, Detroit and Miami, with prices back to 2021. Their calls count in the record. Stopped making calls on grapes in New York, Los Angeles and Detroit and cucumbers in Detroit, right under 55% of the time. Calls right moved from 73.8% to 75.5%, big swings flagged ahead from 32.5% to 33.1%, wrong-way calls on big swings from 4.5% to 3.8%.
November 4, 2026. When USDA quotes two grades, types or districts for one pack on the same day, the price is now one real quote, with the grade named, instead of the point halfway between them. New York oranges read $35.50 before; USDA quoted First Grade at $38 to $40 and Choice at $30 to $34. Calls right moved from 73.7% to 73.8%.
November 4, 2026. Added 12 items: apples, watermelons, pineapples, cantaloupes, mangoes, pears, cabbage, oranges, sweet corn, cauliflower, sweet potatoes and mushrooms. Their calls count in the record, which moved a little: calls right from 74.4% to 73.7%, big swings flagged ahead from 34.3% to 32.6%, wrong-way calls on big swings from 4.9% to 4.6%. Apples show prices but no firming or softening calls, because past calls were right only half the time.
November 3, 2026. Grapes now follow USDA’s 18 and 19 lb containers as one pack, so New York and Chicago show California grapes in season, not a Peru pack USDA quotes a few days a month. Carrots follow California in New York and Chicago. USDA’s shipment reports leave California carrots out, and that had put Canada first. The record moved from 75% to 74% of calls right, and big swings flagged ahead from 35% to 34%.
November 3, 2026. The main case price is now a real USDA quote: the latest one from the item’s main growing area, with the other areas listed. It was a week’s average across every area quoted, which could be a price nobody traded. Forecasts now run from the price on the page. That’s a stricter test, so the record went down: calls right from 79% to 75%, big swings flagged ahead from 44% to 35%. Wrong-way calls on big swings stayed about 5%.
November 3, 2026. Signs of a move now show only when the forecast agrees. In past years, signs that agreed came true 79% to 84% of the time, and the others 46% to 59%.
November 2, 2026. The forecast became an average of two models, and uses the latest day’s price as an input. The typical two-week miss went from 12.0% to 11.5% on the week’s-average measure then in use.
November 2, 2026. Added “Unsettled”: no call when the forecast goes against a big move at shipping points, or calls for a rise after a long stretch of low prices that USDA’s market reporters don’t back up.

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