How accurate are the forecasts?
In July 2026, strawberries at Hunts Point went from $7.00 to $18.60 a case in two weeks. The forecast here had it firming before it happened. This page is the full record, misses included, from a test that only ever used the data a buyer would have had at the time.
The record, 2021 to 2026
| What was measured | Result |
|---|---|
| Firming and softening calls that got the direction right8,698 calls, 2021-2026 | 73% |
| Price swings of 10% or more flagged two weeks aheadCalled the wrong way 8% of the time; the rest had no call | 49% |
| Average move in the direction called, within two weeks | $4.47a case |
| Early warnings that came trueAgainst 33% by chance, over 2,327 past cases | 75% |
The biggest New York moves of the past year
Each item's largest two-week move at Hunts Point in the last 12 months, and what the forecast said two weeks before, using only data available at the time. It called 5 of these 6. The miss is listed too.
| Item | Before | Two weeks later | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| StrawberriesWeek of Jul 27, 2026 | $7.00 | $18.60+166% | Called itSaid ▲ firming |
| Bell peppersWeek of Feb 9, 2026 | $18.00 | $47.17+162% | Called itSaid ▲ firming |
| TomatoesWeek of Oct 5, 2026 | $26.00 | $63.80+145% | Called itSaid ▲ firming |
| IcebergWeek of Apr 6, 2026 | $25.00 | $51.85+107% | Called itSaid ▲ firming |
| Roma tomatoesWeek of Oct 6, 2025 | $15.00 | $30.80+105% | MissedSaid steady |
| BlueberriesWeek of Aug 17, 2026 | $19.00 | $34.00+79% | Called itSaid ▲ firming |
What the USDA reports leave out
Every price here comes from USDA Market News, and those reports are the right place to see what traded today. What they don't tell you is what it means for your next order.
| USDA market reports | This report | |
|---|---|---|
| Coverage | One report per market per day, often hundreds of lines | Three terminals and the shipping points on one page |
| Is the price high? | Today's price only | Against the same weeks of the last 10 years, adjusted for inflation |
| Where is it going? | Not covered | A two-week price range for each item, tested on five years of data |
| Early warning | You spot shipping-point moves yourself, if you have time | Flagged when a signal has called the next move at least 65% of the time |
| What to do about it | Up to you | Firming, softening or steady for each item, with what it means for pricing, inventory and specs |
How buyers use it
- Lock price or stay open. On a firming market, lock price with your supplier before it moves. On a softening one, stay on the open market.
- Decide how deep to buy. Items that keep a month or more (onions, potatoes, carrots, celery, lemons, limes) can go a few days deeper ahead of a rise. Perishables stay bought to need.
- Get quotes out on time. Update customer pricing before the market moves, not after the margin is gone.
- Check your specs. Compare case prices across counts (48s against 60s, 175s against 200s) and see what's good value to put on special.
- Check the supplier's story. See whether “the market's up” matches what the terminals and shipping points show.
Where it's strongest
| Item | Right | Calls | Avg move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limes | 82% | 946 | $6.45 |
| Strawberries | 76% | 434 | $4.44 |
| Celery | 76% | 1,085 | $4.99 |
| Romaine | 74% | 1,039 | $4.91 |
| Iceberg | 74% | 844 | $5.82 |
| Cucumbers | 73% | 966 | $3.99 |
| Broccoli | 73% | 943 | $3.84 |
| Blueberries | 72% | 486 | $4.37 |
Items that hold steady, such as onions and potatoes, rarely move enough to call. When there's no signal the report says steady rather than guess.
The limits
These are USDA-reported terminal prices, not your supplier's quote. A forecast is a range, not a promise: about one price in five lands outside it, and about half of big swings come with no call at all. Every number on this page comes from a walk-forward test. Each year was predicted only with data from before it, the same way it runs live.
Live since 2026-09-21: 82% of 651 scored forecasts have landed inside their range. The running score is on the price history page, misses included.
Put together by a former New York produce buyer.